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Margin of victory doesnt get discussed as much as strength of schedule. BYU will travel to Las Vegas to take on Notre Dame in Allegiant Stadium. Projected winner: According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Florida is projected as a comfortable favorite on the road against Ole Miss on Saturday. This article looks at the rankings you should take seriously in making predictions on college football games, whether youre in a weekly pool, bet on games or just need to feel smart in front of your friends. However, if you look at just the games since the the first week, the accuracy is about the same: 83.7% instead of 84.3%. Just for fun I checked out Texas' FPI predictions for the season, and all but 2 games had Texas over 50%. Each teams FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). In the worst case, an interception gets returned for a touchdown, netting -7 points for the offense. FPI gives the Gators a 78.9 percent chance. On game day, knowing a QB's status is straightforward -- either a player is starting or he is not -- but the model also accounts for the chance that quarterback will miss games throughout the season. [7] Oklahoma would pass Ohio State for the top spot after week 3. Mel Kiper Jr. offers up 20 players -- 10 on offense, 10 on defense -- whose skills represent the complete football skill set. The quarterback factor is adjusted for the probability that the quarterback will start, injuries, rookies, and trades. Burke calculates 1.3 expected points for a 1st and 10 from their own 40. The latter site also combines FEI with S&P+ to obtain the F/+ rankings, an aggregate picture of team, offense and defense in college football. Yes, you guessed it, ESPNs FPI has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New England Patriots meeting in the Super Bowl. Half of their misses were when the team that won had a 40-50% chance of winning. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. Some factors point in their favor. The only single position that impacts FPI is the quarterback position (only NFL), as predictive QBR is added.